What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 81¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.66.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 82% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 81%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

Daily TSA passenger screenings on Kalshi

If the first published number of nationwide TSA passenger screenings on November 9, 2026 is at least 3,200,000 passengers, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Transportation Security Administration.

Market says (typical open contract)

81%

Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

38% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
81¢ (now)	1.1¢	$0.66	82.1%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
At least 2,500,000 passengers TSA passenger screenings on November 09, 2026? · At least 2,500,000 passengers	81¢	81%	1.1¢	—	38%	1,622	Nov 10, 11:59 UTC
At least 2,600,000 passengers TSA passenger screenings on November 09, 2026? · At least 2,600,000 passengers	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	44%	937	Nov 10, 11:59 UTC
At least 2,400,000 passengers TSA passenger screenings on November 09, 2026? · At least 2,400,000 passengers	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	16%	423	Nov 10, 11:59 UTC
At least 3,200,000 passengers TSA passenger screenings on November 09, 2026? · At least 3,200,000 passengers	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	93	Nov 10, 11:59 UTC
At least 2,200,000 passengers TSA passenger screenings on November 09, 2026? · At least 2,200,000 passengers	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	1	Nov 10, 11:59 UTC
At least 2,100,000 passengers TSA passenger screenings on November 09, 2026? · At least 2,100,000 passengers	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	1	Nov 10, 11:59 UTC
At least 2,000,000 passengers TSA passenger screenings on November 09, 2026? · At least 2,000,000 passengers	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	1	Nov 10, 11:59 UTC
At least 1,900,000 passengers TSA passenger screenings on November 09, 2026? · At least 1,900,000 passengers	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	1	Nov 10, 11:59 UTC
At least 1,800,000 passengers TSA passenger screenings on November 09, 2026? · At least 1,800,000 passengers	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	1	Nov 10, 11:59 UTC
At least 3,100,000 passengers TSA passenger screenings on November 09, 2026? · At least 3,100,000 passengers	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 10, 11:59 UTC
At least 3,000,000 passengers TSA passenger screenings on November 09, 2026? · At least 3,000,000 passengers	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 10, 11:59 UTC
At least 2,900,000 passengers TSA passenger screenings on November 09, 2026? · At least 2,900,000 passengers	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 10, 11:59 UTC
At least 2,800,000 passengers TSA passenger screenings on November 09, 2026? · At least 2,800,000 passengers	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 10, 11:59 UTC
At least 2,700,000 passengers TSA passenger screenings on November 09, 2026? · At least 2,700,000 passengers	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	0	Nov 10, 11:59 UTC
At least 2,300,000 passengers TSA passenger screenings on November 09, 2026? · At least 2,300,000 passengers	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 10, 11:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.