What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 20¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.82.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 21% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 20%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Will Trump visit Camp David? on Kalshi

If Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of Camp David after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: official representatives or offices of Donald Trump, The Guardian, ABC, Fox News, The Information, local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in Frederick County, Maryland, The Wall Street Journal, official social media accounts of Donald Trump or their official representatives, Bloomberg News, CNBC, CBS, official government sources of Maryland, NBC, BBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Semafor, Politico, MSNBC, the Associated Press, Reuters, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

20%

Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

39% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
20¢ (now)	1.1¢	$2.80	21.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Donald Trump visit Camp David before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	19¢	19%	1.1¢	—	38%	3,330	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit Camp David before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	44%	23	Apr 01, 14:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit Camp David before Feb 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027	18¢	18%	1.1¢	—	37%	0	Feb 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit Camp David before Mar 1, 2027? · Before Mar 1, 2027	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	39%	0	Mar 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.