Markets › Kalshi › Mentions
Will Trump mention country on Kalshi
If Yemen / Yemeni, or a plural or possessive form of Yemen / Yemeni, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, PBS, the President of the United States, CBS, NBC, Bloomberg, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico, The New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
83%
Median YES price across 29 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
34% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 83¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $0.60 | 84.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Yemen / Yemeni" before Dec 1, 2026? · Yemen / Yemeni | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 675 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Belgium / Belgian" before Dec 1, 2026? · Belgium / Belgian | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 453 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Bahrain / Bahraini" before Dec 1, 2026? · Bahrain / Bahraini | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 347 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Panama / Panamanian" before Dec 1, 2026? · Panama / Panamanian | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 300 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Hungary / Hungarian" before Dec 1, 2026? · Hungary / Hungarian | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 246 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Cuba / Cuban" before Dec 1, 2026? · Cuba / Cuban | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 163 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "UAE / United Arab Emirates" before Dec 1, 2026? · UAE / United Arab Emirates | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 143 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Kuwait / Kuwaiti" before Dec 1, 2026? · Kuwait / Kuwaiti | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 140 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Palestine / Palestinian" before Dec 1, 2026? · Palestine / Palestinian | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 137 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Paraguay / Paraguayan" before Dec 1, 2026? · Paraguay / Paraguayan | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 124 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Ireland / Irish" before Dec 1, 2026? · Ireland / Irish | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 121 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Australia / Australian" before Dec 1, 2026? · Australia / Australian | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 108 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "United Kingdom / British" before Dec 1, 2026? · United Kingdom / British | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 107 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Colombia / Colombian" before Dec 1, 2026? · Colombia / Colombian | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 80 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Brazil / Brazilian" before Dec 1, 2026? · Brazil / Brazilian | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 68 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Poland / Polish" before Dec 1, 2026? · Poland / Polish | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 67 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "South Africa / South African" before Dec 1, 2026? · South Africa / South African | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 62 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "North Korea / North Korean" before Dec 1, 2026? · North Korea / North Korean | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 57 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Argentina / Argentinian" before Dec 1, 2026? · Argentina / Argentinian | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 41 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Iceland / Icelandic" before Dec 1, 2026? · Iceland / Icelandic | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 35 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Qatar / Qatari" before Dec 1, 2026? · Qatar / Qatari | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 26 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Sudan / Sudanese" before Dec 1, 2026? · Sudan / Sudanese | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 19 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Taiwan / Taiwanese" before Dec 1, 2026? · Taiwan / Taiwanese | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 12 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Turkey / Turkish" before Dec 1, 2026? · Turkey / Turkish | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 6 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Jamaica / Jamaican" before Dec 1, 2026? · Jamaica / Jamaican | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 5 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Egypt / Egyptian" before Dec 1, 2026? · Egypt / Egyptian | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 4 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Spain / Spanish" before Dec 1, 2026? · Spain / Spanish | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 2 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Norway / Norwegian" before Dec 1, 2026? · Norway / Norwegian | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 1 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "India / Indian" before Dec 1, 2026? · India / Indian | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.