Markets › Kalshi › Politics
Trump out as President? on Kalshi
If Donald Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, NBC, The New York Times, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico.
Market says (typical open contract)
18%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
37% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $2.87 | 19.0% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump out before 2027? · Before 2027 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 6,696,658 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump leave office before 2028? · Before 2028 | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 986,583 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump leave office before January 20, 2029? · Before January 20, 2029 | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 648,922 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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