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How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate? on Kalshi
If Donald Trump has sent at least 40 nominations to the U.S. Senate from Nov 8, 2026 through Nov 14, 2026 (as checked on the “Presidential Actions” page at whitehouse.gov at 10:00 AM ET on Nov 15, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the White House.
Market says (typical open contract)
100%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 99¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $0.04 | 99.1% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be at least 10 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Nov 8, 2026? · At least 10 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 16,131 | Nov 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will there be at least 1 presidential nomination sent to the Senate in the week of Nov 8, 2026? · At least 1 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 12,759 | Nov 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will there be at least 20 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Nov 8, 2026? · At least 20 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10,105 | Nov 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will there be at least 30 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Nov 8, 2026? · At least 30 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 841 | Nov 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will there be at least 40 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Nov 8, 2026? · At least 40 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 291 | Nov 15, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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