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What will Trump say? on Kalshi
If Donald Trump says Vietnam as part of Veterans Day remarks originally scheduled for November 11, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Politico.
Market says (typical open contract)
32%
Median YES price across 25 open contracts, 11 Nov 2026 06:31 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
65% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 33¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.34 | 34.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will Donald Trump say during Veterans Day remarks originally scheduled for November 11, 2026? · Crypto / Bitcoin | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 24,305 | Nov 25, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Donald Trump say during Veterans Day remarks originally scheduled for November 11, 2026? · Space Force | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 2,896 | Nov 25, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Donald Trump say during Veterans Day remarks originally scheduled for November 11, 2026? · Biden | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 2,196 | Nov 25, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Donald Trump say during Veterans Day remarks originally scheduled for November 11, 2026? · Healthcare / Health Care | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 1,779 | Nov 25, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Donald Trump say during Veterans Day remarks originally scheduled for November 11, 2026? · Department of War | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 1,553 | Nov 25, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Donald Trump say during Veterans Day remarks originally scheduled for November 11, 2026? · Event does not qualify | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,405 | Nov 25, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Donald Trump say during Veterans Day remarks originally scheduled for November 11, 2026? · Gold Star | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 1,298 | Nov 25, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Donald Trump say during Veterans Day remarks originally scheduled for November 11, 2026? · Hegseth | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 1,205 | Nov 25, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Donald Trump say during Veterans Day remarks originally scheduled for November 11, 2026? · Homeless / Homelessness | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 947 | Nov 25, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Donald Trump say during Veterans Day remarks originally scheduled for November 11, 2026? · Vietnam | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 856 | Nov 25, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Donald Trump say during Veterans Day remarks originally scheduled for November 11, 2026? · Ceasefire | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 698 | Nov 25, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Donald Trump say during Veterans Day remarks originally scheduled for November 11, 2026? · Iran / Iranian | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 686 | Nov 25, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Donald Trump say during Veterans Day remarks originally scheduled for November 11, 2026? · Israel / Israeli | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 611 | Nov 25, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Donald Trump say during Veterans Day remarks originally scheduled for November 11, 2026? · Afghanistan | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 607 | Nov 25, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Donald Trump say during Veterans Day remarks originally scheduled for November 11, 2026? · China / Chinese | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 606 | Nov 25, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Donald Trump say during Veterans Day remarks originally scheduled for November 11, 2026? · Border | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 518 | Nov 25, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Donald Trump say during Veterans Day remarks originally scheduled for November 11, 2026? · Russia / Russian | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 432 | Nov 25, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Donald Trump say during Veterans Day remarks originally scheduled for November 11, 2026? · Stock Market | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 377 | Nov 25, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Donald Trump say during Veterans Day remarks originally scheduled for November 11, 2026? · Nuclear | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 365 | Nov 25, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Donald Trump say during Veterans Day remarks originally scheduled for November 11, 2026? · Peace Through Strength | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 323 | Nov 25, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Donald Trump say during Veterans Day remarks originally scheduled for November 11, 2026? · Medal of Honor | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 307 | Nov 25, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Donald Trump say during Veterans Day remarks originally scheduled for November 11, 2026? · Drone | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 229 | Nov 25, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Donald Trump say during Veterans Day remarks originally scheduled for November 11, 2026? · Golden Dome | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 204 | Nov 25, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Donald Trump say during Veterans Day remarks originally scheduled for November 11, 2026? · Tariff | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 158 | Nov 25, 15:00 UTC |
| What will Donald Trump say during Veterans Day remarks originally scheduled for November 11, 2026? · Ukraine / Ukrainian | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 155 | Nov 25, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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