What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 97¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.11.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 97% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 97%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

When will Trump visit China? on Kalshi

If Donald Trump has physically travelled to and been present within the geographic boundaries of China after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: official representatives or offices of <person>, ABC, Fox News, official social media accounts of <person> or their official representatives, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Guardian, Bloomberg News, The Information, CNBC, CBS, NBC, BBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, The New York Times, Politico, MSNBC, the Associated Press, Reuters, local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in <area>, official government sources of <area>.

Market says (typical open contract)

97%

Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

6% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%
97¢ (now)	0.2¢	$0.11	97.2%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Donald Trump visit China before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	6%	14,856	Dec 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Donald Trump visit China before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	97¢	97%	0.2¢	—	7%	5,777	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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