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Trump Attorneys General on Kalshi
If President Trump has exactly 5 Attorneys General, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fox News, MSNBC, White House, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, ABC, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, The Washington Post, NBC, Axios, CNN, Reuters, the Associated Press, Politico, The New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
23%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
46% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.70 | 24.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How many Attorneys General will Trump have? · 2 | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 10,543 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| How many Attorneys General will Trump have? · 3 | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 7,069 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| How many Attorneys General will Trump have? · 4 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3,878 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
| How many Attorneys General will Trump have? · 5 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 2,081 | Jan 20, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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