Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Truflation EV on Kalshi
If the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Nov 10, 2026 is above 1201.20, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Truflation.
Market says (typical open contract)
52%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
97% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 52¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.68 | 53.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Nov 9, 2026 be above 1141.51? · Above 1141.51 | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 590 | Nov 10, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Nov 9, 2026 be above 1151.51? · Above 1151.51 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 579 | Nov 10, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Nov 9, 2026 be above 1131.51? · Above 1131.51 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 67 | Nov 10, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Nov 9, 2026 be above 1121.51? · Above 1121.51 | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 20 | Nov 10, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Nov 9, 2026 be above 1181.51? · Above 1181.51 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 2 | Nov 10, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Nov 9, 2026 be above 1081.51? · Above 1081.51 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2 | Nov 10, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Nov 9, 2026 be above 1161.51? · Above 1161.51 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 1 | Nov 10, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Nov 9, 2026 be above 1201.51? · Above 1201.51 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 10, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Nov 9, 2026 be above 1191.51? · Above 1191.51 | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 10, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Nov 9, 2026 be above 1171.51? · Above 1171.51 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Nov 10, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Nov 9, 2026 be above 1111.51? · Above 1111.51 | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 10, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Nov 9, 2026 be above 1101.51? · Above 1101.51 | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 10, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Nov 9, 2026 be above 1091.51? · Above 1091.51 | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 10, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Nov 9, 2026 be above 1071.51? · Above 1071.51 | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Nov 10, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Nov 9, 2026 be above 1061.51? · Above 1061.51 | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 0 | Nov 10, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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