Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather
Number of tropical storms on Kalshi
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 30 storms with maximum sustained windspeeds of 39 miles per hour or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be more than 10 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026? · Above 10 | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 31,068 | Dec 02, 04:59 UTC |
| Will there be more than 16 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026? · Above 16 | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 13,998 | Dec 02, 04:59 UTC |
| Will there be more than 14 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026? · Above 14 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 12,136 | Dec 02, 04:59 UTC |
| Will there be more than 18 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026? · Above 18 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 11,111 | Dec 02, 04:59 UTC |
| Will there be more than 12 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026? · Above 12 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 9,276 | Dec 02, 04:59 UTC |
| Will there be more than 30 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026? · Above 30 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,287 | Dec 02, 04:59 UTC |
| Will there be more than 20 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026? · Above 20 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 733 | Dec 02, 04:59 UTC |
| Will there be more than 25 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026? · Above 25 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 216 | Dec 02, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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