Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather
Number of Tornadoes on Kalshi
If the preliminary number of tornadoes in Nov is above 75 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
8% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be more than 25 tornadoes in November? · Above 25 | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 1,407 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will there be more than 50 tornadoes in November? · Above 50 | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 536 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will there be more than 175 tornadoes in November? · Above 175 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 262 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will there be more than 200 tornadoes in November? · Above 200 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 152 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will there be more than 75 tornadoes in November? · Above 75 | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 111 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will there be more than 225 tornadoes in November? · Above 225 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 100 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will there be more than 100 tornadoes in November? · Above 100 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 88 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will there be more than 250 tornadoes in November? · Above 250 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 75 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will there be more than 150 tornadoes in November? · Above 150 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 61 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will there be more than 275 tornadoes in November? · Above 275 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 50 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will there be more than 125 tornadoes in November? · Above 125 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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