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Billboard Top 200 #1 on Kalshi
If BETTER OVER TIME is #1 on the Billboard 200 chart for the Week of Nov 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Billboard.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 23 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will The Black Parade be #1 on the Billboard 200 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · The Black Parade | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 33 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will BETTER OVER TIME be #1 on the Billboard 200 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · BETTER OVER TIME | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Number Ones be #1 on the Billboard 200 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · Number Ones | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Visitor be #1 on the Billboard 200 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · Visitor | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Take Care be #1 on the Billboard 200 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · Take Care | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will PRIMA be #1 on the Billboard 200 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · PRIMA | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will O My Beloved be #1 on the Billboard 200 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · O My Beloved | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will BLOW UP be #1 on the Billboard 200 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · BLOW UP | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will FRESH be #1 on the Billboard 200 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · FRESH | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Young Manhood and Other Donatable Organs be #1 on the Billboard 200 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · Young Manhood and Other Donatable Organs | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love be #1 on the Billboard 200 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Thriller be #1 on the Billboard 200 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · Thriller | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will The Life of a Showgirl be #1 on the Billboard 200 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · The Life of a Showgirl | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will The Great Divide be #1 on the Billboard 200 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · The Great Divide | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will The Art of Loving be #1 on the Billboard 200 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · The Art of Loving | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Stick Season be #1 on the Billboard 200 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · Stick Season | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will SOS be #1 on the Billboard 200 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · SOS | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will One Thing At A Time be #1 on the Billboard 200 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · One Thing At A Time | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will I'm The Problem be #1 on the Billboard 200 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · I'm The Problem | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will ICEMAN be #1 on the Billboard 200 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · ICEMAN | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Heavy Is The Crown be #1 on the Billboard 200 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · Heavy Is The Crown | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will HABIBTI be #1 on the Billboard 200 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · HABIBTI | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will DANDELION be #1 on the Billboard 200 during the week of Nov 21, 2026 · DANDELION | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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