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Top-ranked AI on Kalshi
If ByteDance has a #1 ranked AI model before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: LMSYS.
Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
6% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have a top-ranked AI model before 2027? · OpenAI | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 188,933 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will xAI have a top-ranked AI model before 2027? · xAI | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 109,844 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Meta have a top-ranked AI model before 2027? · Meta | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 53,287 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nvidia have a top-ranked AI model before 2027? · Nvidia | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 36,196 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Deepseek have a top-ranked AI model before 2027? · Deepseek | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 26,396 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alibaba have a top-ranked AI model before 2027? · Alibaba | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 20,201 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Baidu have a top-ranked AI model before 2027? · Baidu | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 13,187 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Z.ai have a top-ranked AI model before 2027? · Z.ai | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 8,457 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will ByteDance have a top-ranked AI model before 2027? · ByteDance | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 7,476 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Moonshot AI have a top-ranked AI model before 2027? · Moonshot AI | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 6,194 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mistral have a top-ranked AI model before 2027? · Mistral | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 4,896 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will 01A1 have a top-ranked AI model before 2027? · 01A1 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1,411 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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