What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 1¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.47.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 1%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Tlaxcala Governor winner on Kalshi

If Vicente Emilio Ponce Cano wins the 2027 Tlaxcala gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Instituto Tlaxcalteca de Elecciones, Instituto Nacional Electoral.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

2% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Concepción Sánchez González win the 2027 Tlaxcala gubernatorial election? · Concepción Sánchez González	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	7,723	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Raymundo Vázquez Conchas win the 2027 Tlaxcala gubernatorial election? · Raymundo Vázquez Conchas	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	3,747	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Alfonso Sánchez García win the 2027 Tlaxcala gubernatorial election? · Alfonso Sánchez García	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	3,743	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Floria María Hernández Hernández win the 2027 Tlaxcala gubernatorial election? · Floria María Hernández Hernández	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	3,689	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera win the 2027 Tlaxcala gubernatorial election? · Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera	68¢	68%	1.5¢	—	63%	3,620	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Vicente Emilio Ponce Cano win the 2027 Tlaxcala gubernatorial election? · Vicente Emilio Ponce Cano	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,080	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Francisco Javier Soto Hernández win the 2027 Tlaxcala gubernatorial election? · Francisco Javier Soto Hernández	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	2,069	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Delfino Suárez Piedras win the 2027 Tlaxcala gubernatorial election? · Delfino Suárez Piedras	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	2,069	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Miriam Martínez Sánchez win the 2027 Tlaxcala gubernatorial election? · Miriam Martínez Sánchez	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	1,869	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Juan Salvador Santos Cedillo win the 2027 Tlaxcala gubernatorial election? · Juan Salvador Santos Cedillo	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	1,869	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Héctor Bernardo Paredes Mora win the 2027 Tlaxcala gubernatorial election? · Héctor Bernardo Paredes Mora	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	1,869	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Raúl Antonio Hernández Castro win the 2027 Tlaxcala gubernatorial election? · Raúl Antonio Hernández Castro	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	1,663	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Carlos Augusto Pérez Hernández win the 2027 Tlaxcala gubernatorial election? · Carlos Augusto Pérez Hernández	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,362	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Alejandro Aguilar López win the 2027 Tlaxcala gubernatorial election? · Alejandro Aguilar López	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,362	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Arturo Díaz Gutiérrez win the 2027 Tlaxcala gubernatorial election? · Arturo Díaz Gutiérrez	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	1,265	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Enrique Padilla Sánchez win the 2027 Tlaxcala gubernatorial election? · Enrique Padilla Sánchez	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,264	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Anabell Ávalos Zempoalteca win the 2027 Tlaxcala gubernatorial election? · Anabell Ávalos Zempoalteca	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,262	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Juan Manuel Cambrón Soria win the 2027 Tlaxcala gubernatorial election? · Juan Manuel Cambrón Soria	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,162	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Sergio Iván Larios Salas win the 2027 Tlaxcala gubernatorial election? · Sergio Iván Larios Salas	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	1,063	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC
Will Irma Yordana Garay Loredo win the 2027 Tlaxcala gubernatorial election? · Irma Yordana Garay Loredo	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,062	Jun 06, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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