Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Tirana mayoral election winner on Kalshi
If the candidate of the coalition that includes the Socialist Party wins the 2027 Tirana mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Central Election Commission of Albania.
Market says (typical open contract)
30%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
61% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the candidate of the coalition that includes Lëvizja Bashkë win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election? · Together Movement | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 54 | May 09, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the candidate of the coalition that includes the Democratic Party win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election? · Democratic Party | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 8 | May 09, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the candidate of the coalition that includes the Socialist Party win the 2027 Tirana mayoral election? · Socialist Party | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 0 | May 09, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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