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TIME's Athlete of the Year on Kalshi
If Yan Ziyi is officially declared the recipient of TIME's Athlete of the Year for 2026, the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Washington Post, ESPN, The Wall Street Journal, Sports Illustrated, TIME, The New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 55 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Jalen Brunson · Jalen Brunson | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 146 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Angel Reese · Angel Reese | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 13 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Alysa Liu · Alysa Liu | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 13 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Yan Ziyi · Yan Ziyi | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Yoshinobu Yamamoto · Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Yulimar Rojas · Yulimar Rojas | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Victor Wembanyama · Victor Wembanyama | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Tigst Assefa · Tigst Assefa | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Scottie Scheffler · Scottie Scheffler | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Sabastian Sawe · Sabastian Sawe | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Shohei Ohtani · Shohei Ohtani | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone · Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Rumesh Tharanga Pathirage · Rumesh Tharanga Pathirage | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Paul Skenes · Paul Skenes | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Nikki Hiltz · Nikki Hiltz | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Mikaela Shiffrin · Mikaela Shiffrin | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Masai Russell · Masai Russell | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: María Pérez · María Pérez | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Marileidy Paulino · Marileidy Paulino | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Melissa Jefferson-Wooden · Melissa Jefferson-Wooden | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Mondo Duplantis · Mondo Duplantis | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Mookie Betts · Mookie Betts | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Lamine Yamal · Lamine Yamal | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Lindsey Vonn · Lindsey Vonn | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Lionel Messi · Lionel Messi | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Kylian Mbappé · Kylian Mbappé | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Kristjan Čeh · Kristjan Čeh | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Kenneth Bednarek · Kenneth Bednarek | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Ja’Kobe Tharp · Ja’Kobe Tharp | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Jordan Stolz · Jordan Stolz | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Juan Soto · Juan Soto | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Jannik Sinner · Jannik Sinner | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Johannes Høsflot Klæbo · Johannes Høsflot Klæbo | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Josh Kerr · Josh Kerr | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Hilary Knight · Hilary Knight | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Faith Kipyegon · Faith Kipyegon | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Freddie Freeman · Freddie Freeman | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Elena Rybakina · Elena Rybakina | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
| TIME's Athlete of the Year in 2026: Eileen Gu · Eileen Gu | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Mar 31, 14:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 55 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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