Markets › Kalshi › Economics
U.S. Treasury cash balance on Kalshi
If the Treasury General Account closing balance for November 13, 2026 is above $975 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: U.S. Department of the Treasury.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for November 13, 2026 be above $975 billion? · Above $975 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:59 UTC |
| Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for November 13, 2026 be above $950 billion? · Above $950 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:59 UTC |
| Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for November 13, 2026 be above $925 billion? · Above $925 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:59 UTC |
| Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for November 13, 2026 be above $900 billion? · Above $900 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:59 UTC |
| Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for November 13, 2026 be above $875 billion? · Above $875 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:59 UTC |
| Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for November 13, 2026 be above $850 billion? · Above $850 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:59 UTC |
| Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for November 13, 2026 be above $825 billion? · Above $825 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:59 UTC |
| Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for November 13, 2026 be above $800 billion? · Above $800 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:59 UTC |
| Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for November 13, 2026 be above $1,050 billion? · Above $1,050 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:59 UTC |
| Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for November 13, 2026 be above $1,025 billion? · Above $1,025 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:59 UTC |
| Will the Treasury General Account closing balance for November 13, 2026 be above $1,000 billion? · Above $1,000 billion | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 16, 19:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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