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Tesla deliveries by on Kalshi
If Tesla delivers more than 750000 vehicles in a single quarter starting with Q1 2025 and before Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Tesla.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.43 | 2.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How much will Tesla deliveries grow before 2027? · Above 500000 in a single quarter | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 107,581 | Apr 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How much will Tesla deliveries grow before 2027? · Above 750000 in a single quarter | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 9,204 | Apr 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How much will Tesla deliveries grow before 2027? · Above 1000000 in a single quarter | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 2,060 | Apr 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How much will Tesla deliveries grow before 2027? · Above 2000000 in a single quarter | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,103 | Apr 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How much will Tesla deliveries grow before 2027? · Above 1500000 in a single quarter | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 865 | Apr 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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