What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 86¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.47.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 87% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 86%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather

Hourly Directional NYC Temperature on Kalshi

If the temperature recorded at New York City for Nov 10, 2026 at 12 AM EST as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 52.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Synoptic Data.

Market says (typical open contract)

86%

Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

27% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
86¢ (now)	0.8¢	$0.49	86.8%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the temp in New York City be above 48.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 12am EST? · 49° or above	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	1,792	Nov 10, 05:00 UTC
Will the temp in New York City be above 47.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 12am EST? · 48° or above	86¢	86%	0.8¢	—	27%	1,604	Nov 10, 05:00 UTC
Will the temp in New York City be above 49.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 12am EST? · 50° or above	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	1,083	Nov 10, 05:00 UTC
Will the temp in New York City be above 43.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 12am EST? · 44° or above	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	440	Nov 10, 05:00 UTC
Will the temp in New York City be above 45.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 12am EST? · 46° or above	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	113	Nov 10, 05:00 UTC
Will the temp in New York City be above 46.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 12am EST? · 47° or above	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	4%	40	Nov 10, 05:00 UTC
Will the temp in New York City be above 52.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 12am EST? · 53° or above	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Nov 10, 05:00 UTC
Will the temp in New York City be above 51.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 12am EST? · 52° or above	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Nov 10, 05:00 UTC
Will the temp in New York City be above 50.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 12am EST? · 51° or above	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Nov 10, 05:00 UTC
Will the temp in New York City be above 44.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 12am EST? · 45° or above	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Nov 10, 05:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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