What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 76¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.82.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 78% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 76%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather

Hourly Directional Coastal LA Temperature on Kalshi

If the temperature recorded at Coastal Los Angeles for Nov 10, 2026 at 12 AM EST as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 74.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Synoptic Data.

Market says (typical open contract)

76%

Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

47% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
76¢ (now)	1.3¢	$0.84	77.3%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the temp in Coastal Los Angeles be above 70.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 12am EST? · 71° or above	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	864	Nov 10, 05:00 UTC
Will the temp in Coastal Los Angeles be above 69.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 12am EST? · 70° or above	76¢	76%	1.3¢	—	47%	408	Nov 10, 05:00 UTC
Will the temp in Coastal Los Angeles be above 68.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 12am EST? · 69° or above	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	240	Nov 10, 05:00 UTC
Will the temp in Coastal Los Angeles be above 67.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 12am EST? · 68° or above	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	197	Nov 10, 05:00 UTC
Will the temp in Coastal Los Angeles be above 71.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 12am EST? · 72° or above	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	67	Nov 10, 05:00 UTC
Will the temp in Coastal Los Angeles be above 74.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 12am EST? · 75° or above	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Nov 10, 05:00 UTC
Will the temp in Coastal Los Angeles be above 73.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 12am EST? · 74° or above	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Nov 10, 05:00 UTC
Will the temp in Coastal Los Angeles be above 72.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 12am EST? · 73° or above	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Nov 10, 05:00 UTC
Will the temp in Coastal Los Angeles be above 66.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 12am EST? · 67° or above	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Nov 10, 05:00 UTC
Will the temp in Coastal Los Angeles be above 65.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 12am EST? · 66° or above	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Nov 10, 05:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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