Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Will temporary-help employment increase in [month]? on Kalshi
If All Employees, Temporary Help Services for November 2026 is above 2.600 million, according to FRED series TEMPHELPS, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
Market says (typical open contract)
38%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
75% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 38¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.17 | 39.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will All Employees, Temporary Help Services for November 2026 be above 2.520 million? · Above 2.520 million | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 8 | Dec 04, 14:29 UTC |
| Will All Employees, Temporary Help Services for November 2026 be above 2.600 million? · Above 2.600 million | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Dec 04, 14:29 UTC |
| Will All Employees, Temporary Help Services for November 2026 be above 2.580 million? · Above 2.580 million | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Dec 04, 14:29 UTC |
| Will All Employees, Temporary Help Services for November 2026 be above 2.560 million? · Above 2.560 million | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 0 | Dec 04, 14:29 UTC |
| Will All Employees, Temporary Help Services for November 2026 be above 2.540 million? · Above 2.540 million | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Dec 04, 14:29 UTC |
| Will All Employees, Temporary Help Services for November 2026 be above 2.500 million? · Above 2.500 million | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Dec 04, 14:29 UTC |
| Will All Employees, Temporary Help Services for November 2026 be above 2.480 million? · Above 2.480 million | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Dec 04, 14:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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