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TB cases on Kalshi
If the total number of tuberculosis disease cases reported in the United States during 2026 is above 9000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: national health agencies, CDC, national health statistics reporting bodies, World Health Organization.
Market says (typical open contract)
65%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
70% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 65¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $1.23 | 66.6% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 11000 tuberculosis disease cases in the United States during 2026 · Above 11k | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 5,708 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Above 10000 tuberculosis disease cases in the United States during 2026 · Above 10k | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 5,365 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Above 9000 tuberculosis disease cases in the United States during 2026 · Above 9k | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 5,298 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Above 8000 tuberculosis disease cases in the United States during 2026 · Above 8k | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 3,536 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Above 7000 tuberculosis disease cases in the United States during 2026 · Above 7k | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 1,167 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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