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Tariff revenue on Kalshi
If US tariff revenue for 2026 is above $350 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
Market says (typical open contract)
95%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
10% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 95¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $0.18 | 95.3% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $200 billion? · Above $200 billion | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 5,216 | Jun 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $250 billion? · Above $250 billion | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 4,328 | Jun 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $150 billion? · Above $150 billion | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 3,112 | Jun 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $125 billion? · Above $125 billion | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 402 | Jun 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $300 billion? · Above $300 billion | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 232 | Jun 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $100 billion? · Above $100 billion | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 171 | Jun 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $80 billion? · Above $80 billion | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 76 | Jun 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will US tariff revenue for 2026 be above $350 billion? · Above $350 billion | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 37 | Jun 01, 03:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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