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Taiwan Legislative Yuan by-elections winner on Kalshi
If the Kuomintang wins the most seats in Taiwan’s 2027 Legislative Yuan by-elections for seats vacated by winners of the 2026 local elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Central Election Commission of Taiwan.
Market says (typical open contract)
74%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
53% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 73¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $0.95 | 74.4% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Democratic Progressive Party win the most seats in Taiwan’s 2027 Legislative Yuan by-elections for seats vacated by winners of the 2026 local elections? · Democratic Progressive Party | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 37 | Mar 24, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kuomintang win the most seats in Taiwan’s 2027 Legislative Yuan by-elections for seats vacated by winners of the 2026 local elections? · Kuomintang | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Mar 24, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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