Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Taiwanese Local Elections winner on Kalshi
If the Taiwan People’s Party wins the most mayoral and magistrate races in Taiwan’s 2026 local elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the official electoral commission, constitutional court, or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction.
Market says (typical open contract)
30%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
60% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kuomintang win the most mayoral and magistrate races in Taiwan’s 2026 local elections? · Kuomintang | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 14,445 | Nov 28, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Democratic Progressive Party win the most mayoral and magistrate races in Taiwan’s 2026 local elections? · Democratic Progressive Party | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 7,593 | Nov 28, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Taiwan People’s Party win the most mayoral and magistrate races in Taiwan’s 2026 local elections? · Taiwan People’s Party | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 106 | Nov 28, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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