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Taipei & New Taipei mayoral combo on Kalshi
If ALL of Shen Bo-yang in the Taipei mayoral election and Su Chiao-hui in the New Taipei mayoral election win their respective elections in the November 28, 2026 Taipei and New Taipei mayoral elections, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Central Election Commission of Taiwan.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwan mayor combo: Chiang Wan-an & Lee Shu-chuan? · Chiang Wan-an & Lee Shu-chuan | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 156 | Nov 28, 15:00 UTC |
| Taiwan mayor combo: Shen Bo-yang & Su Chiao-hui? · Shen Bo-yang & Su Chiao-hui | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 91 | Nov 28, 15:00 UTC |
| Taiwan mayor combo: Chiang Wan-an & Su Chiao-hui? · Chiang Wan-an & Su Chiao-hui | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 4 | Nov 28, 15:00 UTC |
| Taiwan mayor combo: Shen Bo-yang & Lee Shu-chuan? · Shen Bo-yang & Lee Shu-chuan | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 28, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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