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Taca de Portugal Winner on Kalshi
If Guimaraes is the 2026-27 Taca de Portugal champion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
40%
Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
81% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 41¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.07 | 42.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Estrela Amadora win the 2026-27 Taca de Portugal? · Estrela Amadora | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 500 | Jun 13, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Guimaraes win the 2026-27 Taca de Portugal? · Guimaraes | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 500 | Jun 13, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Tondela win the 2026-27 Taca de Portugal? · Tondela | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 500 | Jun 13, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Santa Clara Azores win the 2026-27 Taca de Portugal? · Santa Clara Azores | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 500 | Jun 13, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Rio Ave win the 2026-27 Taca de Portugal? · Rio Ave | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 500 | Jun 13, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Moreirense win the 2026-27 Taca de Portugal? · Moreirense | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 500 | Jun 13, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Vicente Barcelos win the 2026-27 Taca de Portugal? · Vicente Barcelos | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 500 | Jun 13, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Estoril win the 2026-27 Taca de Portugal? · Estoril | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 500 | Jun 13, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Madeira win the 2026-27 Taca de Portugal? · Madeira | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 500 | Jun 13, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Nacional win the 2026-27 Taca de Portugal? · Nacional | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 500 | Jun 13, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Casa Pia win the 2026-27 Taca de Portugal? · Casa Pia | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 500 | Jun 13, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Arouca win the 2026-27 Taca de Portugal? · Arouca | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 500 | Jun 13, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Alverca win the 2026-27 Taca de Portugal? · Alverca | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 500 | Jun 13, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Viseu win the 2026-27 Taca de Portugal? · Viseu | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 500 | Jun 13, 16:00 UTC |
| Will SL Benfica win the 2026-27 Taca de Portugal? · SL Benfica | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 239 | Jun 13, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Sporting CP win the 2026-27 Taca de Portugal? · Sporting CP | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 6 | Jun 13, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Porto win the 2026-27 Taca de Portugal? · Porto | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 0 | Jun 13, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Famalicao win the 2026-27 Taca de Portugal? · Famalicao | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 0 | Jun 13, 16:00 UTC |
| Will Braga win the 2026-27 Taca de Portugal? · Braga | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 0 | Jun 13, 16:00 UTC |
| Will AVS win the 2026-27 Taca de Portugal? · AVS | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 0 | Jun 13, 16:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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