Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Swiss Federal Council by-election winner on Kalshi
If Yvan Pahud wins the 2026 Swiss Federal Council by-election for Guy Parmelin's seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Assembly of Switzerland.
Market says (typical open contract)
47%
Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
94% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pierre-Alain Schnegg win the 2026 Swiss Federal Council by-election for Guy Parmelin's seat? · Pierre-Alain Schnegg | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 551 | Dec 09, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Thomas Aeschi win the 2026 Swiss Federal Council by-election for Guy Parmelin's seat? · Thomas Aeschi | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 496 | Dec 09, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Pascal Schmid win the 2026 Swiss Federal Council by-election for Guy Parmelin's seat? · Pascal Schmid | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 222 | Dec 09, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Natalie Rickli win the 2026 Swiss Federal Council by-election for Guy Parmelin's seat? · Natalie Rickli | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 221 | Dec 09, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jean-Pierre Gallati win the 2026 Swiss Federal Council by-election for Guy Parmelin's seat? · Jean-Pierre Gallati | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 203 | Dec 09, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Yvan Pahud win the 2026 Swiss Federal Council by-election for Guy Parmelin's seat? · Yvan Pahud | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Dec 09, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Thomas Matter win the 2026 Swiss Federal Council by-election for Guy Parmelin's seat? · Thomas Matter | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Dec 09, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nicolas Kolly win the 2026 Swiss Federal Council by-election for Guy Parmelin's seat? · Nicolas Kolly | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Dec 09, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michael Götte win the 2026 Swiss Federal Council by-election for Guy Parmelin's seat? · Michael Götte | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Dec 09, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Mike Egger win the 2026 Swiss Federal Council by-election for Guy Parmelin's seat? · Mike Egger | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Dec 09, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Franz Grüter win the 2026 Swiss Federal Council by-election for Guy Parmelin's seat? · Franz Grüter | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Dec 09, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Céline Amaudruz win the 2026 Swiss Federal Council by-election for Guy Parmelin's seat? · Céline Amaudruz | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 0 | Dec 09, 15:00 UTC |
| Will André Rüegsegger win the 2026 Swiss Federal Council by-election for Guy Parmelin's seat? · André Rüegsegger | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Dec 09, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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