Markets › Kalshi › Politics
Swedish Prime Minister approval vote on Kalshi
If the Riksdag approves a new Prime Minister in a vote on the Speaker's proposal before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Riksdag.
Market says (typical open contract)
60%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
79% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 60¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.40 | 61.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Riksdag approve a new Prime Minister before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026 | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 893 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Riksdag approve a new Prime Minister before Dec 19, 2026? · Before Dec 19, 2026 | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 42 | Dec 19, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Riksdag approve a new Prime Minister before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jul 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the Riksdag approve a new Prime Minister before Feb 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027 | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 0 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the Riksdag approve a new Prime Minister before Nov 13, 2026? · Before Nov 13, 2026 | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 13, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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