Markets › Kalshi › Sports
To Advance on Kalshi
If Trnava advance past Cadca in the Cadca vs Trnava soccer tie in the 8Th Finals of the Slovakian Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
97% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 48¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.82 | 49.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trnava To Advance · Trnava advances | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 16, 12:00 UTC |
| Cadca To Advance · Cadca advances | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 16, 12:00 UTC |
| Michalovce To Advance · Michalovce advances | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 13, 12:00 UTC |
| Nove Zamky To Advance · Nove Zamky advances | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 13, 12:00 UTC |
| Zlate Moravce To Advance · Zlate Moravce advances | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 13, 15:00 UTC |
| Podbrezova To Advance · Podbrezova advances | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 13, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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