What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 50¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.77.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 51% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 50%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather

Stowe snowfall on Kalshi

If the total snowfall recorded at Stowe Mountain Resort October 1, 2026 through December 24, 2026 (value recorded at 4:00 PM ET on December 24) is above 25 inches, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: the New York Times, Vail Resorts, Stowe Mountain Resort Snow & Weather Report, the Associated Press, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters.

Market says (typical open contract)

50%

Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

99% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
49¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.79	50.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Above 65 inches · Above 65 inches	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	3,060	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC
Above 75 inches · Above 75 inches	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	2,885	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC
Above 115 inches · Above 115 inches	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	1,614	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC
Above 45 inches · Above 45 inches	49¢	49%	1.7¢	—	98%	1,443	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC
Above 55 inches · Above 55 inches	49¢	49%	1.7¢	—	98%	1,054	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC
Above 125 inches · Above 125 inches	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	496	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC
Above 105 inches · Above 105 inches	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	258	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC
Above 95 inches · Above 95 inches	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	2	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC
Above 25 inches · Above 25 inches	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC
Above 35 inches · Above 35 inches	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	0	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC
Above 85 inches · Above 85 inches	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	0	Dec 24, 20:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.