Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather
Stowe Mountain Resort Opening on Kalshi
If Stowe Mountain Resort conducts Seasonal Opening Operations in the 26/27 winter season before Nov 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Stowe Mountain Resort Snow & Weather Report.
Market says (typical open contract)
74%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
52% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 74¢ (now) | 1.3¢ | $0.91 | 75.3% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Stowe Mountain Resort open before Nov 29, 2026? · Before Nov 29, 2026 | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 3,940 | Nov 29, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Stowe Mountain Resort open before Dec 13, 2026? · Before Dec 13, 2026 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 424 | Dec 13, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Stowe Mountain Resort open before Dec 6, 2026? · Before Dec 6, 2026 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 293 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Stowe Mountain Resort open before Nov 22, 2026? · Before Nov 22, 2026 | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 249 | Nov 22, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Stowe Mountain Resort open before Nov 15, 2026? · Before Nov 15, 2026 | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 66 | Nov 15, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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