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New York Legislature race winner? on Kalshi
If the Republican Party wins the 2028 general election for New York Senate District 63, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Associated Press, New York State Board of Elections, New York Times, NBC News, Fox News, CNN, CBS News, ABC News.
Market says (typical open contract)
52%
Median YES price across 426 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
96% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 52¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.68 | 53.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New York Assembly District 119 election? · Democratic party | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 217 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New York Assembly District 47 election? · Democratic party | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 207 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 22 election? · Democratic party | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 105 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New York Assembly District 48 election? · Democratic party | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 105 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New York Assembly District 76 election? · Republican party | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 21 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 39 election? · Democratic party | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 5 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New York Assembly District 76 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 2 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 44 election? · Republican party | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 1 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 63 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 63 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 62 election? · Republican party | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 62 election? · Democratic party | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 61 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 61 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 60 election? · Republican party | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 60 election? · Democratic party | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 59 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 59 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 58 election? · Republican party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 58 election? · Democratic party | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 57 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 57 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 56 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 56 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 55 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 55 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 54 election? · Republican party | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 54 election? · Democratic party | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 53 election? · Republican party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 53 election? · Democratic party | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 52 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 52 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 51 election? · Republican party | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 51 election? · Democratic party | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 50 election? · Republican party | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 50 election? · Democratic party | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 49 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 49 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 48 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 New York Senate District 48 election? · Democratic party | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 426 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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