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Michigan Legislature race winner? on Kalshi
If the Republican Party wins the 2028 general election for Michigan House District 110, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Michigan Department of State, Bureau of Elections, Associated Press, New York Times, NBC News, Fox News, CNN, CBS News, ABC News.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 220 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 3 election? · Republican party | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 304 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 4 election? · Republican party | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 211 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 74 election? · Republican party | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 106 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 15 election? · Democratic party | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 60 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 55 election? · Democratic party | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 50 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 46 election? · Democratic party | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 50 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 31 election? · Democratic party | 59¢ | 59% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 50 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 22 election? · Democratic party | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 50 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 3 election? · Democratic party | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 49 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 109 election? · Democratic party | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 34 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 110 election? · Republican party | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 110 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 109 election? · Republican party | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 108 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 108 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 107 election? · Republican party | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 107 election? · Democratic party | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 106 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 106 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 105 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 105 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 104 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 104 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 103 election? · Republican party | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 103 election? · Democratic party | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 102 election? · Republican party | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 102 election? · Democratic party | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 101 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 101 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 100 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 100 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 99 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 99 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 98 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 98 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 97 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 97 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 96 election? · Republican party | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 96 election? · Democratic party | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Michigan House District 95 election? · Republican party | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 220 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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