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Iowa Legislature race winner? on Kalshi
If the Republican Party wins the 2028 general election for Iowa Senate District 50, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Iowa Secretary of State, Associated Press, New York Times, NBC News, Fox News, CNN, CBS News, ABC News.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 250 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 36 election? · Democratic party | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 50 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Iowa House District 43 election? · Democratic party | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 50 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Iowa House District 1 election? · Democratic party | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 50 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 50 election? · Republican party | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 50 election? · Democratic party | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 48 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 48 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 46 election? · Republican party | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 46 election? · Democratic party | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 44 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 44 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 42 election? · Republican party | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 42 election? · Democratic party | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 40 election? · Republican party | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 40 election? · Democratic party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 38 election? · Republican party | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 38 election? · Democratic party | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 36 election? · Republican party | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 34 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 34 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 32 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 32 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 30 election? · Republican party | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 30 election? · Democratic party | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 28 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 28 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 26 election? · Republican party | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 26 election? · Democratic party | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 24 election? · Republican party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 24 election? · Democratic party | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 22 election? · Republican party | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 22 election? · Democratic party | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 20 election? · Republican party | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 20 election? · Democratic party | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 18 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 18 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 16 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 16 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 14 election? · Republican party | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Iowa Senate District 14 election? · Democratic party | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 250 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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