Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Hawaii Legislature race winner? on Kalshi
If the Republican Party wins the 2028 general election for Hawaii Senate District 24, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Associated Press, New York Times, Hawaii Office of Elections, NBC News, Fox News, CNN, CBS News, ABC News.
Market says (typical open contract)
56%
Median YES price across 126 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
88% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 56¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.54 | 57.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Hawaii House District 14 election? · Democratic party | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 20 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Hawaii House District 18 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Hawaii Senate District 24 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Hawaii Senate District 24 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Hawaii Senate District 23 election? · Republican party | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Hawaii Senate District 23 election? · Democratic party | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Hawaii Senate District 22 election? · Republican party | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Hawaii Senate District 22 election? · Democratic party | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Hawaii Senate District 19 election? · Republican party | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Hawaii Senate District 19 election? · Democratic party | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Hawaii Senate District 18 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Hawaii Senate District 18 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Hawaii Senate District 16 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Hawaii Senate District 16 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Hawaii Senate District 12 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Hawaii Senate District 12 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Hawaii Senate District 7 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Hawaii Senate District 7 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Hawaii Senate District 6 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Hawaii Senate District 6 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Hawaii Senate District 4 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Hawaii Senate District 4 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Hawaii Senate District 3 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Hawaii Senate District 3 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Hawaii Senate District 1 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Hawaii Senate District 1 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Hawaii House District 51 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Hawaii House District 51 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Hawaii House District 50 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Hawaii House District 50 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Hawaii House District 49 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Hawaii House District 49 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Hawaii House District 48 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Hawaii House District 48 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Hawaii House District 47 election? · Republican party | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Hawaii House District 47 election? · Democratic party | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Hawaii House District 46 election? · Republican party | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Hawaii House District 46 election? · Democratic party | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Hawaii House District 45 election? · Republican party | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Hawaii House District 45 election? · Democratic party | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 126 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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