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Arizona Legislature race winner? on Kalshi
If the Republican Party wins the 2028 general election for Arizona Senate District 30, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Associated Press, Arizona Secretary of State, New York Times, NBC News, Fox News, CNN, CBS News, ABC News.
Market says (typical open contract)
53%
Median YES price across 60 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
94% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 53¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.65 | 54.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 23 election? · Democratic party | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 50 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 17 election? · Democratic party | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 50 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 13 election? · Democratic party | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 50 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 9 election? · Democratic party | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 50 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 4 election? · Democratic party | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 50 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 1 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 20 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 1 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 20 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 17 election? · Republican party | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 3 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 30 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 30 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 29 election? · Republican party | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 29 election? · Democratic party | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 28 election? · Republican party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 28 election? · Democratic party | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 27 election? · Republican party | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 27 election? · Democratic party | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 26 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 26 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 25 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 25 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 24 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 24 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 23 election? · Republican party | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 22 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 22 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 21 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 21 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 20 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 20 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 19 election? · Republican party | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 19 election? · Democratic party | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 18 election? · Republican party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 18 election? · Democratic party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 16 election? · Republican party | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 16 election? · Democratic party | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 15 election? · Republican party | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 15 election? · Democratic party | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 14 election? · Republican party | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 14 election? · Democratic party | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Arizona Senate District 13 election? · Republican party | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Nov 07, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 60 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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