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Spotify Annual KPI on Kalshi
If Spotify Technology S.A. reports Above 308000000 premium subscribers in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 27 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spotify Technology S.A. report Above 800 million total monthly active users in 2026? · Above 800 million | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 5,704 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Spotify Technology S.A. report Above 810 million total monthly active users in 2026? · Above 810 million | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 4,707 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Spotify Technology S.A. report Above 790 million total monthly active users in 2026? · Above 790 million | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 4,623 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Spotify Technology S.A. report Above 316 million premium subscribers in 2026? · Above 316 million | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 3,753 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Spotify Technology S.A. report Above 850 million total monthly active users in 2026? · Above 850 million | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,965 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Spotify Technology S.A. report Above 328 million premium subscribers in 2026? · Above 328 million | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,116 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Spotify Technology S.A. report Above 820 million total monthly active users in 2026? · Above 820 million | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 1,904 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Spotify Technology S.A. report Above 830 million total monthly active users in 2026? · Above 830 million | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 1,594 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Spotify Technology S.A. report Above 318 million premium subscribers in 2026? · Above 318 million | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 1,243 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Spotify Technology S.A. report Above 322 million premium subscribers in 2026? · Above 322 million | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 1,221 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Spotify Technology S.A. report Above 324 million premium subscribers in 2026? · Above 324 million | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,088 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Spotify Technology S.A. report Above 320 million premium subscribers in 2026? · Above 320 million | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 1,075 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Spotify Technology S.A. report Above 330 million premium subscribers in 2026? · Above 330 million | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 885 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Spotify Technology S.A. report Above 326 million premium subscribers in 2026? · Above 326 million | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 858 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Spotify Technology S.A. report Above 840 million total monthly active users in 2026? · Above 840 million | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 485 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Spotify Technology S.A. report above 7350 full-time employees globally in 2026? · Above 7350 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 405 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Spotify Technology S.A. report above 7300 full-time employees globally in 2026? · Above 7300 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 215 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Spotify Technology S.A. report above 7150 full-time employees globally in 2026? · Above 7150 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 200 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Spotify Technology S.A. report above 7250 full-time employees globally in 2026? · Above 7250 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 200 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Spotify Technology S.A. report above 7200 full-time employees globally in 2026? · Above 7200 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 200 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Spotify Technology S.A. report above 7400 full-time employees globally in 2026? · Above 7400 | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 144 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Spotify Technology S.A. report Above 308 million premium subscribers in fiscal 2026? · Above 308 million | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 80 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Spotify Technology S.A. report Above 314 million premium subscribers in fiscal 2026? · Above 314 million | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 26 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Spotify Technology S.A. report above 7450 full-time employees globally in 2026? · Above 7450 | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 10 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Spotify Technology S.A. report above 7100 full-time employees globally in 2026? · Above 7100 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 7 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Spotify Technology S.A. report Above 310 million premium subscribers in fiscal 2026? · Above 310 million | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Spotify Technology S.A. report Above 312 million premium subscribers in fiscal 2026? · Above 312 million | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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