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Sporting Goods Ad Spend on Kalshi
If the Carbon Arc Sporting Goods Ad Spend (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 99 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Carbon Arc.
Market says (typical open contract)
38%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
77% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 39¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.14 | 40.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sporting Goods Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 232.5 ? · Above 232.5 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,638 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Sporting Goods Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 119 ? · Above 119 | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 1,020 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Sporting Goods Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 67.5 ? · Above 67.5 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 976 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Sporting Goods Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 193.5 ? · Above 193.5 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 873 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Sporting Goods Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 99 ? · Above 99 | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Sporting Goods Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 341 ? · Above 341 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Sporting Goods Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 164.5 ? · Above 164.5 | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Sporting Goods Ad Spend for November 2026 be above 140 ? · Above 140 | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Dec 06, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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