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Special Report on Kalshi
If John Thune says Trump (3+ times) as part of Fox News: Special Report with Bret Baier originally scheduled for November 10, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, CBS, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Politico.
Market says (typical open contract)
47%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
94% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will John Thune say during Fox News: Special Report with Bret Baier originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Affordable / Affordability | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 918 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will John Thune say during Fox News: Special Report with Bret Baier originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Event does not qualify | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 661 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will John Thune say during Fox News: Special Report with Bret Baier originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Tax | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 574 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will John Thune say during Fox News: Special Report with Bret Baier originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Midterm | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 424 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will John Thune say during Fox News: Special Report with Bret Baier originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Inflation | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 417 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will John Thune say during Fox News: Special Report with Bret Baier originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Iran / Iranian | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 331 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will John Thune say during Fox News: Special Report with Bret Baier originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Biden | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 273 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will John Thune say during Fox News: Special Report with Bret Baier originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Hegseth | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 270 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will John Thune say during Fox News: Special Report with Bret Baier originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Trump (3+ times) | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 257 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will John Thune say during Fox News: Special Report with Bret Baier originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Oil / Gas / Gasoline | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 215 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will John Thune say during Fox News: Special Report with Bret Baier originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Impeach / Impeachment | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 211 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will John Thune say during Fox News: Special Report with Bret Baier originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Schumer | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 116 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will John Thune say during Fox News: Special Report with Bret Baier originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Filibuster | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 101 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will John Thune say during Fox News: Special Report with Bret Baier originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · Democrat | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 82 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
| What will John Thune say during Fox News: Special Report with Bret Baier originally scheduled for November 10, 2026? · American Dream | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 32 | Nov 24, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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