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when SP500 price on Kalshi
If the value of the S&P 500 Index is above $10,000 at any point after Issuance and before Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: For example, Google Finance.
Market says (typical open contract)
20%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
40% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20¢ (now) | 1.1¢ | $2.80 | 21.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 13,258 | Dec 01, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 6,386 | Jan 01, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Feb 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 3,640 | Feb 01, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 Index be above $8,000 before Mar 1, 2027? · Before Mar 1, 2027 | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 666 | Mar 01, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 Index be above $10,000 before Dec 31, 2027? · Before Dec 31, 2027 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 634 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 Index be above $10,000 before Dec 31, 2028? · Before Dec 31, 2028 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 296 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 Index be above $10,000 before Jun 30, 2028? · Before Jun 30, 2028 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 201 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 Index be above $10,000 before Dec 31, 2029? · Before Dec 31, 2029 | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 150 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 Index be above $10,000 before Jun 30, 2027? · Before Jun 30, 2027 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 0 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the S&P 500 Index be above $10,000 before Dec 31, 2026? · Before Dec 31, 2026 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.