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Companies removed from SP500 on Kalshi
If Skyworks Solutions is announced to be or is officially removed from S&P 500 during October 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: S&P Global.
Market says (typical open contract)
8%
Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
17% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $3.19 | 9.6% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Paramount Skydance be removed from the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Paramount Skydance | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 858 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kenvue be removed from the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Kenvue | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 601 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Norwegian Cruise Line be removed from the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Norwegian Cruise Line | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 600 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will AES be removed from the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · AES | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 414 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Alexandria Real Estate be removed from the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Alexandria Real Estate | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 200 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Deckers Outdoor be removed from the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Deckers Outdoor | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 106 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Skyworks Solutions be removed from the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Skyworks Solutions | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Solventum be removed from the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Solventum | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will LyondellBasell Industries be removed from the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · LyondellBasell Industries | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Hasbro be removed from the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Hasbro | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Dow be removed from the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Dow | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Hormel Foods be removed from the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Hormel Foods | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Brown-Forman be removed from the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · Brown-Forman | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will A. O. Smith be removed from the S&P 500 in Q4 2026? · A. O. Smith | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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