What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 50¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.75.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 52% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 50%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Secretary of State race winner? on Kalshi

If the Republican Party wins the 2028 West Virginia Secretary of State election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ, NBC News, US State Governments, New York Times, CNN, Fox News, CBS News, ABC News.

Market says (typical open contract)

50%

Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

100% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢ (now)	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will the Republican Party win the 2028 West Virginia Secretary of State race? · Republican party	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 West Virginia Secretary of State race? · Democratic party	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Washington Secretary of State race? · Republican party	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Washington Secretary of State race? · Democratic party	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Vermont Secretary of State race? · Republican party	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Vermont Secretary of State race? · Democratic party	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Oregon Secretary of State race? · Republican party	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Oregon Secretary of State race? · Democratic party	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican Party win the 2028 North Carolina Secretary of State race? · Republican party	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 North Carolina Secretary of State race? · Democratic party	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Montana Secretary of State race? · Republican party	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Montana Secretary of State race? · Democratic party	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican Party win the 2027 Mississippi Secretary of State race? · Republican party	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	Nov 02, 14:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party win the 2027 Mississippi Secretary of State race? · Democratic party	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	Nov 02, 14:00 UTC
Will the Republican Party win the 2028 Missouri Secretary of State race? · Republican party	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Missouri Secretary of State race? · Democratic party	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	Nov 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican Party win the 2027 Louisiana Secretary of State race? · Republican party	88¢	88%	0.7¢	—	24%	Nov 20, 15:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party win the 2027 Louisiana Secretary of State race? · Democratic party	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	Nov 20, 15:00 UTC
Will the Republican Party win the 2027 Kentucky Secretary of State race? · Republican party	88¢	88%	0.7¢	—	24%	Nov 02, 14:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party win the 2027 Kentucky Secretary of State race? · Democratic party	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	Nov 02, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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