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Summer Olympics Lacrosse Qualifiers on Kalshi
If Uganda achieves qualification in the Men's Lacrosse competition for the Los Angeles 2028 Olympic Games, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: LA28, World Lacrosse, Team USA.
Market says (typical open contract)
18%
Median YES price across 46 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
37% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $2.87 | 19.0% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Côte d’Ivoire qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Côte d’Ivoire | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 41,475 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will South Korea qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · South Korea | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 17,305 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will New Zealand qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · New Zealand | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 15,620 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Latvia qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Latvia | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 15,168 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Hong Kong, China qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Hong Kong, China | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 13,817 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Czechia qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Czechia | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 13,363 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Norway qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Norway | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 12,371 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Kenya qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Kenya | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 12,046 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Uganda qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Uganda | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 9,812 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will China qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · China | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 7,766 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Chinese Taipei qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Chinese Taipei | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 6,868 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Türkiye qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Türkiye | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 6,265 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Denmark qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Denmark | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 5,967 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Israel qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Israel | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 5,746 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Netherlands qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Netherlands | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 5,721 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Great Britain qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Great Britain | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 5,054 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Belgium qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Belgium | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 4,849 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Greece qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Greece | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 4,505 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Sweden qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Sweden | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 4,105 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Saudi Arabia qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Saudi Arabia | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 3,809 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Puerto Rico qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Puerto Rico | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 3,734 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Japan qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Japan | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 3,693 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Canada qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Canada | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 3,406 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Singapore qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Singapore | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 3,038 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Philippines qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Philippines | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 2,937 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ireland qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Ireland | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 2,912 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Portugal qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Portugal | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 2,678 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will France qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · France | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 2,638 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Spain qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Spain | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 2,547 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Austria qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Austria | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 2,496 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Finland qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Finland | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 2,449 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Italy qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Italy | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 67% | 2,365 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Brazil qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Brazil | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 2,271 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Slovakia qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Slovakia | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 2,080 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will South Africa qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · South Africa | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 2,018 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Ghana qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Ghana | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 2,014 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Mexico qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Mexico | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 1,888 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jamaica qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Jamaica | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 1,844 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Croatia qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Croatia | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 1,542 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Hungary qualify for LA28 men's lacrosse? · Hungary | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 1,533 | Aug 01, 14:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 46 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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