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Bristol Bay sockeye run forecast on Kalshi
If the preseason total run forecast issued by ADF&G for Bristol Bay sockeye salmon for the 2027 season is above 55 million fish, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Alaska Department of Fish and Game.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
11% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $3.29 | 6.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 sockeye run forecast: between 37 and 42.99 million fish? · Between 37 and 42.99 million | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 6,430 | Dec 04, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 sockeye run forecast: between 49 and 55 million fish? · Between 49 and 55 million | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 5,334 | Dec 04, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 sockeye run forecast: above 55 million fish? · Above 55 million | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 4,893 | Dec 04, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 sockeye run forecast: between 43 and 48.99 million fish? · Between 43 and 48.99 million | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 3,418 | Dec 04, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 sockeye run forecast: between 29 and 36.99 million fish? · Between 29 and 36.99 million | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 369 | Dec 04, 15:00 UTC |
| 2027 sockeye run forecast: below 29 million fish? · Below 29 million | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 164 | Dec 04, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.