What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 31¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.41.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 32% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 31%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

Soccer Retire on Kalshi

If Thiago Silva announces his retirement from soccer (must retire from all professional play including domestic and international) before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The Washington Post, Bleacher Report, NBC Sports, Yahoo Sports, league or association governing <sport/league>, ABC, official team communications, ESPN, The Athletic, The Associated Press, Sports Illustrated, Fox Sports, The Wall Street Journal, Reuters, The New York Times, CNN, CBS, Bloomberg News.

Market says (typical open contract)

31%

Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

62% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
31¢ (now)	1.5¢	$2.41	32.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Luis Suárez announce his retirement from soccer before Jul 1, 2027? · Luis Suárez	27¢	27%	1.4¢	—	54%	3,373	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Cristiano Ronaldo announce his retirement from soccer before Jul 1, 2027? · Cristiano Ronaldo	56¢	56%	1.7¢	—	88%	2,609	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Neymar announce his retirement from soccer before Jul 1, 2027? · Neymar	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	1,734	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Sergio Ramos announce his retirement from soccer before Jul 1, 2027? · Sergio Ramos	31¢	31%	1.5¢	—	62%	1,400	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Olivier Giroud announce his retirement from soccer before Jul 1, 2027? · Olivier Giroud	74¢	74%	1.4¢	—	53%	1,280	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Manuel Neuer announce his retirement from soccer before Jul 1, 2027? · Manuel Neuer	49¢	49%	1.7¢	—	98%	643	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement from soccer before Jul 1, 2027? · Lionel Messi	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	122	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Thiago Silva announce his retirement from soccer before Jul 1, 2027? · Thiago Silva	42¢	42%	1.7¢	—	83%	21	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Ángel Di María announce his retirement from soccer before Jul 1, 2027? · Ángel Di María	73¢	73%	1.4¢	—	54%	10	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Riyad Mahrez announce his retirement from soccer before Jul 1, 2027? · Riyad Mahrez	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	0	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Marco Reus announce his retirement from soccer before Jul 1, 2027? · Marco Reus	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	29%	0	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Luka Modrić announce his retirement from soccer before Jul 1, 2027? · Luka Modrić	36¢	36%	1.6¢	—	73%	0	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Kyle Walker announce his retirement from soccer before Jul 1, 2027? · Kyle Walker	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	29%	0	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.