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Snowflake KPI on Kalshi
If Snowflake Inc. reports Above 890 customers with trailing 12-month revenue $1m in Q3 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
78%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
43% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 78¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $0.77 | 79.2% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Snowflake Inc. report Above 860 customers with trailing 12-month revenue >$1m in Q3 2027? · Above 860 | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 441 | Mar 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Snowflake Inc. report Above 880 customers with trailing 12-month revenue >$1m in Q3 2027? · Above 880 | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 210 | Mar 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Snowflake Inc. report Above 875 customers with trailing 12-month revenue >$1m in Q3 2027? · Above 875 | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 207 | Mar 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Snowflake Inc. report Above 855 customers with trailing 12-month revenue >$1m in Q3 2027? · Above 855 | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 200 | Mar 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Snowflake Inc. report Above 865 customers with trailing 12-month revenue >$1m in Q3 2027? · Above 865 | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 141 | Mar 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Snowflake Inc. report Above 890 customers with trailing 12-month revenue >$1m in Q3 2027? · Above 890 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 17 | Mar 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Snowflake Inc. report Above 870 customers with trailing 12-month revenue >$1m in Q3 2027? · Above 870 | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 6 | Mar 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Snowflake Inc. report Above 885 customers with trailing 12-month revenue >$1m in Q3 2027? · Above 885 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Mar 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Snowflake Inc. report Above 850 customers with trailing 12-month revenue >$1m in Q3 2027? · Above 850 | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 0 | Mar 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Snowflake Inc. report Above 845 customers with trailing 12-month revenue >$1m in Q3 2027? · Above 845 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Mar 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Snowflake Inc. report Above 840 customers with trailing 12-month revenue >$1m in Q3 2027? · Above 840 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Mar 25, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Snowflake Inc. report Above 835 customers with trailing 12-month revenue >$1m in Q3 2027? · Above 835 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Mar 25, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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