Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather
Snowfall by city on Kalshi
If the total snowfall recorded in Providence (KPVD) from Nov 12 to 15, 2026 is strictly greater than 1 inch, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Weather Company, National Weather Service.
Market says (typical open contract)
48%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 11 Nov 2026 06:31 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
97% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 48¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.82 | 49.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Providence get over 1 inch of snow from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Providence | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Philadelphia get over 1 inch of snow from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Philadelphia | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will New York City get over 1 inch of snow from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · New York City | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Newark get over 1 inch of snow from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Newark | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Boston get over 1 inch of snow from Nov 12 to 15, 2026? · Boston | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 16, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.