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Snapchat Annual KPI on Kalshi
If Snap Inc. reports Above 508000000 global average quarterly daily active users in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
46%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
93% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 47¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.86 | 48.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Snap Inc. report Above 492 million global average quarterly daily active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 492 million | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 2,255 | May 05, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Snap Inc. report Above 500 million global average quarterly daily active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 500 million | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 1,523 | May 05, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Snap Inc. report Above 496 million global average quarterly daily active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 496 million | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 743 | May 05, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Snap Inc. report Above 504 million global average quarterly daily active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 504 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 403 | May 05, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Snap Inc. report Above 508 million global average quarterly daily active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 508 million | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 339 | May 05, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Snap Inc. report Above 488 million global average quarterly daily active users in fiscal 2026? · Above 488 million | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 291 | May 05, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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