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Fox wins summary judgment against Smartmatic on Kalshi

If a New York State court grants Fox Corporation and Fox News Network, LLC summary judgment dismissing all of Smartmatic's remaining claims against them in Smartmatic USA Corp. v. Fox Corp., Index No. 151136/2021, or any appeal thereof before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: New York State Law Reporting Bureau, New York State Unified Court System (NYSCEF).

Market says (typical open contract)
14%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
27% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
14¢ (now)0.8¢$3.0114.8%
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will a New York State court rule grants Fox Corporation and Fox News Network, LLC summary judgment dismissing all of Smartmatic's remaining claims against them? · Before 202814¢14%0.8¢—27%991Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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